Analysis: Republicans Are Gambling With Rural America

How Republicans control the white vote and how they’re gambling with rural voters to grow that power

Photo by Jakob Rosen on Unsplash

I’ve spent the last two weeks in Deep East Texas due to a family medical emergency. If you haven’t seen much of me online, this is why. With that said, whenever I come up here, I pay attention. I watch and listen. Had I been able to spend this much time here under different circumstances, I’d have taken some extra time to talk to more people in the area, not just the handful that I’ve spoken to or listened to. It doesn’t get much more rural than this.

I’m on the outskirts of a city whose schools weren’t declared racially integrated until a decades-old consent decree was finally lifted 48 years after the Brown v. Board of Education decision in 1954. A case that highlights Texas’ long and sordid history with segregation. Today, many of those cities and towns are more diverse. For example, Longview, Texas, home of the aforementioned school system, is 51.4% White, 21.8% Latino, and 20.1% Black.

Historically, many towns throughout the state were divided by railroad tracks. In East Texas, it was no different, and the remnants of that can still be seen today. Railroads, like the Texas and Pacific Railway, were used to split cities in what is often referred to as “The Piney Woods” of East Texas. As a result of that hardline segregationist stance and lack of access to White communities, many historically Black communities in this region of Texas are found in the area.

From Houston’s historical Fourth Ward to Robinson Hill and Masontown near Austin, the state is home to more than 550 Black settlements known as “Freedmen’s Towns,” most of which are found in East Texas. These settlements were established between 1865 and 1930, when Black Texans bought land on the edges of plantations and cities. Because of its history, the views expressed by many in East Texas aren’t what you likely think. Like much of the U.S., most people don’t want to talk about certain parts of history.

That is especially true now, a year into Trump’s second term. White rural voters aren’t worried about things that they perceive as not affecting them, such as racism or wars – their biggest concerns are with their own economics. In East Texas, manufacturing is crucial to these small economies. Many here earn a decent living. Despite these towns being considered rural, they’re more suburban than anything. The median income of about $62,000 trends below the state average, but the cost of living is considerably lower than in many other parts of Texas and the country.

The poverty rate in the region hovers at 15%, about 20% higher than the state average. Much of the rural U.S., like East Texas, resembles suburbia well. With corporate ownership of farms growing and farmland being sold to developers at an alarming rate, manufacturing, utilities, and construction have replaced agricultural work. Many rural areas have also largely adapted to a service-based economy. In other words, Union labor has become more prevalent and growing despite Texas being an anti-union “right-to-work” state.

While it may seem as though Republicans are counting rural America as a solid foundation to expand their politics into suburbia, rural areas continue to grow more diverse, and skilled trades are becoming a prevailing source of income in regions like East Texas. Despite white people still representing 64% of rural America’s population, this growing diversity has been weaponized by Republicans to create fear of White people being “replaced.”

Texas serves as the bastion of conservative politics, and it’s not a coincidence that when the 2020 census showed Latinos outnumbering White Texans, the idea of mass deportations began to gain traction. The architect of those policies is Ken Cuccinelli, who served as acting deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for two years under Trump during his first term. After a 2021 meeting with Texas Governor Greg Abbott, Cuccinelli released a letter by Russel Vought, the current Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), outlining what became Operation Lone Star.

Conservative politics have largely been centered around manufactured culture wars for decades. The idea that society is advancing toward equality and justice is often used to fear-monger about the U.S. losing its so-called identity. Fears of migrants taking jobs and driving up housing costs have been falsely used as anti-immigrant weapons against various migrant groups, from Germans, Italians, Irish, and Chinese people to Latinos today.

While it’s not new, it works for Christian white nationalist politics. However, what has become evident to many Trump voters, although they won’t outwardly admit it, is that they were duped by the idea of so-called “criminal migrants.” They will admit falling for the idea of Trump being a “peace president,” that he would release ALL of the Epstein files, and that he would “fix” the economy he helped destroy during the first year of the pandemic, but blamed President Joe Biden for. Rural Trumpers sound no different than suburban Trumpers who were also duped.

Considering Trump’s base is largely made up of white nationalist evangelicals, funding Israel’s genocide of Palestinians wasn’t a factor for them. The same group is largely unbothered by systemic racism in every aspect of the justice system and largely opposes progress toward acceptance of marginalized groups, such as the LGBTQ community.

Essentially, this voting bloc prefers a White male-dominated society akin to an era that no longer exists, nor were many of them a part of: the 1950s. Thanks in large part to decades of culture wars in the same vein as Richard Nixon’s Southern Strategy, rural areas have been much slower to adapt to change, as evidenced by the historically slow progress in desegregation and many other modern societal norms, such as acceptance of gay marriage and equality.

In an election where a meager 64% of eligible voters participated, Donald Trump’s version of the Southern Strategy didn’t just win him the rural vote by larger margins; he also made gains in white suburbia. While many analysts and pundits are focused on white suburban voters because they have a larger presence and influence in U.S. politics, they must not overlook white rural voters.

The influence of conservative politics in suburbia grew in 2024, but as buyer’s remorse sets in and Trump’s poll numbers continue to bottom out, a window of opportunity to make gains in rural America may be opening. To break new ground across social and political boundaries, policies must be centered on tangible economic ideas that rein in corporate greed and improve people’s everyday lives through better wages, access to healthcare, and affordable housing.

Republicans won’t offer any of that.

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Arturo is an independent freelance journalist. He has written hundreds of articles on policing, immigration, race, and Latin America. His work has been featured in outlets such as Unicorn Riot, The Antagonist Magazine, Latino Rebels, and more. Arturo is also on TikTok, Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Mastodon, and Threads. To support his work, become a paid subscriber or donate via Venmo, PayPal, or Cash App.